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Fox News Poll: Texas tossup, Biden-Trump a one-point race

Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, 45-44 percent, in a new Fox News survey of Texas registered voters.

Ten percent are up for grabs, and this small subgroup of voters is more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s job performance by 52-34 percent.

The good news for Trump: he bests Biden by 51-45 percent among those “extremely” motivated to vote in the election.

Trump corralled the Lone Star State by 9 points in 2016 (52 percent vs. Hillary Clinton’s 43 percent), and it has been in the Republican column in every presidential election since 1980.

Texas voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy (by 14 points) and immigration (+4), while they think Biden would do a better job on race relations (+10 points) and coronavirus (+3).

There’s a 24-point gender gap on the head-to-head matchup, as men pick Trump by 12 points and women go for Biden by 12.

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Trump is preferred by Baby Boomers (+12 points) and Gen Xers (+7), while Millennials go big for Biden (+29).

Hispanics (+37 points) and Blacks (+79) support Biden, while whites back Trump (+29).

It helps Trump that more Texas voters identify as Republicans (46 percent) than as Democrats (40 percent), because the subgroup of independents goes for Biden by 18 points (40-22 percent).

The 12 percent of “very” conservatives and 19 percent of evangelical Christians who back Biden help make the race competitive.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott receives far higher job approval ratings than the president.  Sixty-three percent of Texas voters approve of his performance compared to 50 percent for Trump.

Approval of Abbott includes 37 percent of Democrats, 57 percent of independents, and 89 percent of Republicans.  For Trump, approval stands at 12 percent among Democrats, 31 percent among independents, and 89 percent among Republicans.

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Texas recorded daily highs in the number of COVID-19 cases recently, and Abbott said Monday that those increases were “unacceptable.”

“President Trump has always had a bit of trouble connecting with Texas voters, and he is underachieving right now,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “To be essentially tied while Governor Abbott is over 60 percent approval and Senator Cornyn is up by double-digits highlights the problem, but there’s still a long time until Election Day.”

Republican Sen. John Cornyn leads both of his potential Democratic candidates in hypothetical matchups, although he garners less than the 62 percent he received in his 2014 reelection.

MJ Hegar and Royce West were the top two finishers in the March 3 Democratic primary.  Neither received a majority of the vote so there is a July 14 runoff.

The three-term incumbent leads both Hegar and West by a 10-point margin.  About one in six voters is undecided/uncommitted in each matchup.

Conducted June 20-23 2020 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,001 Texas voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file, who spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.  Respondents could complete the interview in English or Spanish.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.

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